News Analysis, Ezra Klein, The Washington Post
Evan
Vucci / Associated Press
Republican
presidential candidate Mitt Romney talks with foreign policy adviser Dan Senor
(left) and vice presidential running mate Paul Ryan in Daytona Beach, Fla., on
Saturday.
October 20, 2012, 6:05 p.m.
Gallup poll hints at popular vote win for Romney
News
Analysis, Ezra Klein, The Washington Post
According
to Real Clear Politics, Mitt Romney is, on average, up by one point in the
polls. According to both Nate Silver and InTrade, President Barack Obama has a
better-than-60-percent chance of winning the election. I think it's fair to say
that the election is, for the moment, close.
But
not according to Gallup. Its seven-day
tracking poll shows Romney up by seven points -- yes, seven -- with likely voters. But he's only up by one point with registered voters.
tracking poll shows Romney up by seven points -- yes, seven -- with likely voters. But he's only up by one point with registered voters.
It
gets weirder: Dig into the poll, and you'll find that in the most recent
internals they've put on their website -- which track from Oct. 9 to 15 --
Obama is winning the West (+6), the East (+4) and the Midwest (+4).
The
only region he's losing is the South. But he's losing the South, among likely
voters, by 22 points. That's enough, in Gallup's poll, for him to be behind in
the national vote. But it's hard to see how that puts him behind in the
electoral college.
If
Gallup is right, then that looks to me like we're headed for an electoral
college/popular vote split. Last night, I spoke with Frank Newport, editor in
chief of Gallup, to ask him if I was missing something. He said I wasn't.
"That's certainly what it looks like," he said.
But
Newport was cautious in interpreting his numbers. Gallup's poll cheered Romney
supporters because it showed Romney gaining ground even after the second
debate. But Newport didn't see it like that. Remember, he warned, it's a seven-day
poll.
"I
think we're still seeing leftover positive support for Romney, and I don't
think we're seeing impact yet from the second debate," he said.
What
you think is going on in the race depends on whether you think the electorate
will ultimately look more like Gallup's "likely voter" model, where
the race is a blowout, or all registered voters, where it's a dead heat. So I
asked Newport to explain the likely voter model to me.
"The
likely voters model takes into account changes in the response to questions
about how closely they're following and how enthusiastic they are," he
said. "It's not just capturing underlying movement -- it's representing
changes in enthusiasm."
That
sounds, I replied, like a model that would tend to overstate the effects of
major events that favored one candidate or the other, as their supporters would
grow temporarily more enthusiastic and attentive, while the other side would
grow temporarily disillusioned.
Newport
agreed. "I wouldn't use the word 'overstate,'" he said. "But it
would be very sensitive to changes in enthusiasm. The Denver debate clearly had
an impact on Romney's people. I think your insight is correct there. Whether we
see a dulling of that over the next several days is what I want to see."
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